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Econometrics & Forecasting

Econometrics & Forecasting

5 days
GER/ECF
Ask us about this course
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Sessions
Who should attend?
Learning Objectives
Course Content
Ways & Means
Sessions
Dates Location Tuition Register
Nov 19 - 23, 2018 Rueil 3,310 €
Online By email
Who should attend?

Audience

    • Engineers, economists and financiers from all sectors.

Level

  • Proficiency
  • To be able to use econometric tools in order to determine correlations and adjustments between physical or economical series and to make forecasts and simulations.
Learning Objectives
  • Upon completion of the course, the participants will be able to:
  • use the main econometric techniques,
  • perform an econometric estimation,
  • develop models and make forecasts, in particular in the energy sector and on financial markets.
Course Content

STATISTIC BASIS

0.5 day
  • Descriptive statistics (mean, median, standard-deviation, etc.), indices (Laspeyres, Paasche, Divisia).
  • Statistical tests (normality, student, Fisher).
  • Application: energy data set (quantities, prices).

LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS & FORECASTING

1.5 days
  • Simple and multiple linear regression models, ordinary least square estimator, R2.
  • Application: energy demand model.
  • Statistical tests validating econometric models: autocorrelation (Durbin-Watson, Lagrangian multiplier), heteroscedasticity (White and Breusch-Pagan), multicollinearity (BKW).
  • Structural change on linear regression model (Chow test, Brown-Durbin & Evans test).
  • Application: analysis of the substitution between oil, gas and electricity.
  • Principle of forecasting with an econometric model (properties of the estimator, prediction interval).
  • Application: forecasts on energy demand model.

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS & FORECASTING

1 day
  • Time series model.
  • Smoothing techniques for short run forecasts: extrapolation techniques (moving average, time series decomposition with trend and seasonal pattern).
  • Application: monthly energy demand series (with a seasonal pattern), forecast over 12 month.
  • ARIMA models (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average), tests assessing the stochastic processes (number of autoregressive and moving average lags, stationnarity).
  • Application: ARIMA model simulations.

TIME SERIES RELATIONSHIP: COINTEGRATION & CAUSALITY

1 day
  • Introduction to cointegration techniques: unit root tests (Dickey-Fuller, Phillips-Perron, KPSS), Engle and Granger model, long term equilibrium, Error Correction Model (ECM).
  • Causality test.
  • Application: cointegration techniques to Oil & Gas markets.
  • Cointegration with multiple relationship: Johanson test (max. eigenvalue and Trace test) on a VAR (Vectorial AutoRegressive) model.
  • Application: modeling the equilibrium between prices over several market places.
  • Structural changes on cointegration model: long term and short term dynamic (Perron test, Gregory and Hansen test).

CHANGES OF VOLATILITY ON ENERGY MARKET

1 day
  • ARCH model (AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedastic) and generalization.
  • Application: modeling volatility changes in the short term dynamic and on the equilibrium of Oil & Gas markets.
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Downstream Module

Marketing & Sales of Lubricants

Marketing & Sales of Lubricants

Supply Chain Management

Supply Chain Management

Gas Markets & Trading

Gas Markets & Trading

Contractual Framework of Gas Sale-Purchase & Transportation

Contractual Framework of Gas Sale-Purchase & Transportation

Legal Issues Relating to FSRU Projects

Legal Issues Relating to FSRU Projects

Negotiating LNG Master Sale & Purchase Agreement

Negotiating LNG Master Sale & Purchase Agreement

Natural Gas & Electricity Trading

Natural Gas & Electricity Trading

Econometrics & Forecasting

Econometrics & Forecasting

Assess Energy Efficiency & CO<sub>2</sub> Reduction

Assess Energy Efficiency & CO2 Reduction

Financial Management of an International Oil & Gas Company

Financial Management of an International Oil & Gas Company

Upstream Budget Practice

Upstream Budget Practice

Upstream Contracts Audit

Upstream Contracts Audit

Upstream Auditing Certification

Upstream Auditing Certification

Governance of an E&P Company

Governance of an E&P Company

Ways & Means
  • Applications performed on computer (statistical tests, development of econometric models, forecasting, simulation, highlighting cointegration and causality relationship, etc.) using Excel and Eviews.

Legal Information

General Terms of Sale

Personal Data Protection

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